Counting the Self-Employed

Swing States in the 2020 Presidential Election

 Self-Employed% of Workforce2016
Victory Margin
New Hampshire106,00015%2,736
Michigan748,00015%10,704
Wisconsin409,00013%22,748
Nevada221,00014%27,202
Pennsylvania883,00014%44,292
Minnesota466,00015%44,765
Arizona460,00013%91,234
Florida2,053,00019%112,911
Colorado529,00016%136,386
Iowa290,00016%147,284
North Carolina788,00015%173,315
Georgia915,00018%211,141
Virginia638,00015%212,030
Ohio836,00014%446,841

The state-by-state self-employed numbers here are taken from statistics compiled by the Census Bureau from 2016 tax returns of businesses with no employees.

These twenty-five million non-employer businesses include sole proprietors (86%), S-Corporations and partnerships. Consequently, these statistics do not include the three million small businesses that have one to four employees, and which now employ more than six million people. Nor do these Census Bureau non-employer statistics include the USA’s 2.1 million farmers (province of the USDA), 90% of whom are self-employed. I have included farmers in the numbers of self-employed broken out by state here (except for NH, NV, AZ, FL) based on statistics from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. I have not included the small businesses with employees.

The numbers of self-employed identified by the Census Bureau’s non-employer site are based on tax returns, and are dominated by sole proprietors. Consequently, many millions of potential self-employed voters are left out of the numbers included here. Most of these missing self-employed fall into the following five categories:

1. Spouses in self-employed businesses where the husband and wife work together as partners, but only one spouse is listed on tax returns as working in the business—for instance, a family farm where the husband and wife work together, but the wife appears on the tax return only as “housewife.” This choice is usually made because of tax benefits and exposures.

2. The approximately 1,800,000 farmers that are self-employed and are not included in the Census Bureau non-employer statistics.

3. The three million small businesses with one to four employees.

4. Self-employed people who do not file tax returns. Self-employed people who participate in the “black market” economy range from farm workers to musicians. The majority participate in the black market economy because they cannot afford to pay the Self-Employment Tax. A self-employed person who earns only $10,000 is not likely to file a tax return that would require him or her to pay a $1,500 Self-Employment Tax.

5. In my opinion, the unemployed are self-employed. When a person loses his or her job, it is usually up to that person to make ends meet. This “activity” in securing sustenance should be viewed as self-employment.

For a 2017 breakdown of non-employer establishments based on size of revenue, or type of business organization, go to Nonemployer Statistics for the U.S. These 2017 non-employer statistics do not include a state by state breakdown, but nationally the number of non-employer businesses grew by about 900,000 between 2016 and 2017 to total 25,701,000. "All Sectors: Nonemployer Statistics for the U.S., States, Metropolitan Areas, and counties; and by Legal Form of Organization and Sales, Value of Shipments, or Revenue Size for Selected Geographies: 2017"

If the twenty-five million non-employer businesses are added to the three million small businesses with two to four employees, the 1.8 million self-employed farmers, the undeclared working spouses in small businesses, the individuals that do not file tax returns, and the unemployed, there is a strong argument to be made that there are over forty million self-employed people in the USA. Which Democrat will call out their name?